Sector Transition Strategies
INDUSTRY-BACKED, NET ZERO STRATEGIES FOR SEVEN CRITICAL SECTORS
We work collaboratively to enact a shared vision for industrial decarbonisation in seven hard-to-abate resources and mobility sectors: aluminium, cement and concrete, chemicals (ammonia) and steel; aviation, shipping, and trucking.
Our sector transition strategies (STS) for action in this decade are endorsed by more than 200 leading industrial companies. Published analysis and scenarios for six of our seven sectors can be found here. A cement and concrete STS will be published in 2023.
Developed from the STS scenarios, MPP’s 2030 Milestones are real-world minimum thresholds to make net zero viable by 2050. Our sector milestones represent bold but achievable ambitions for installed low and zero emissions industrial infrastructure, within 1.5 degrees-aligned sectoral carbon budgets.
Sector transition Tools
The sector tools provide open access to our model materials and analytics to promote transparency and collaboration as well as to facilitate regular refinement as data and insights evolve.
A Sector Transition Strategy can be engaged with in two ways. Firstly, through an explorer tools interface that allows the modelling results to be viewed and interacted with. Secondly, access is provided to the underlying model code via GitHub, for technical audiences that want to understand the model in depth and run custom scenarios.
Endorsed by major global aviation leaders, MPP’s Aviation Transition Strategy provides a shared vision for the industry’s low-carbon future, detailing real economy milestones detailing industry, policy and finance action required to get to net zero on a 1.5°C-alinged pathway. It outlines, for instance, that 10–15% of the final jet fuel demand need to come from SAFs (Sustainable Aviation Fuels) by 2030 in order to kick off the transition to net-zero in the 2030s and 2040s – requiring a ramp-up of the current SAF project pipeline by a factor of 5–6 by 2030.
With trucking demand surging globally, a swift, decisive move to zero-emissions trucks and a rapid rollout of infrastructure are needed to achieve net zero by 2050. Major trucking players have signed on to MPP’s Trucking Transition Strategy that details a future of zero-emissions trucks and a rapid roll-out of supporting infrastructure. With trucking demand in China, Europe, India, and the United States expected to more than double by 2050, MPP forecasts a need for ten million zero emissions trucks by 2030 with between 1.8-2.5 million EV chargers and between 1,000-19,000 hydrogen stations.
First published in October 2021, a shipping Transition Strategy from the MPP-supported Getting to Zero Coalition, a partnership between the World Economic Forum and the Global Maritime Forum, and prepared by the University Maritime Advisory Services (UMAS), has relaunched as Making Zero-Emissions Shipping possible: An industry-backed Transition Strategy (The re-release of A Strategy for the Transition to Zero-Emission Shipping. The report shows the opportunity created by shipping’s need for scalable zero-emission fuels and details how a robust future demand from shipping can de-risk business cases for land-side production of green hydrogen that can serve multiple industries. The Strategy provides new insights into the essential elements of such a transition: the political, technical, economic, and commercial requirements, and the actions needed from the sector to deliver on them.
Endorsed by major global steelmakers, MPP’s Steel Transition Strategy provides a shared vision for the industry’s low-carbon future, providing real economy milestones and detailing the industry, policy, and finance action required to get to net zero on a 1.5C-aligned pathway. It outlines, for example, that over 190 Mt/y of near-zero emissions primary steel production capacity would need to be up and running by 2030 to kick-off the transition to net zero in the 2030s and 2040s. This would mean converting the current pipeline to 2030 of ‘low-carbon’ primary steel capacity to near-zero emissions technologies and expanding it by a factor of three before the end of the decade.
The Mission Possible Partnership is producing chemicals transitions strategies prioritizing the most highly emissive parts of the sector. The first transition strategy produces pathways to decarbonise one of the most highly emissive and widely used chemicals, Ammonia. Endorsed by major ammonia producers and stakeholders up and down the value chain, MPP’s Ammonia Transition Strategy provides a shared vision for the industry’s low-carbon future, providing real economy milestones and detailing the industry, policy, and finance action required to get to net zero on a 1.5C-aligned pathway. It outlines, for example, that 50-120 Mt/y of near-zero emissions ammonia production capacity would need to be online by 2030 to kick-off the transition to net zero in the 2030s and 2040s – requiring a ramp-up of the current project pipeline by a factor of 2-4.
Endorsed by major global aluminium producers, MPP’s Aluminium Transition Strategy provides a shared vision for the industry’s low-carbon future, providing real economy milestones and detailing the industry, policy, and finance action required to get to net zero on a 1.5C-aligned pathway. It outlines, for example, that 40 additional low-carbon refineries and smelters would need to be online by 2030 to kick-off the transition to net zero in the 2030s and 2040s.
Each of our Sector Transition Strategies have three goals:
- Define an aggressive, industry-backed, net-zero pathway for each sector
- Define what needs to happen over time to meet that trajectory
- Secure commitments to action in the 2020s from critical stakeholders in the value chain
How We Enable Action
- Provide a quantitative reference point that can underpin corporate target setting, science-based targets and financial-sector alignment methodologies
- Inform actions in the 2020s of stakeholders who shape markets, including industry leaders, governments, buyers of carbon-intensive materials and services, and financial institutions
- Provide proof that zero-carbon value chains can work, and encourage others to follow
To promote transparency and collaboration, our model materials and analytics are open-access, which facilitates regular refinement as data and insights evolve. It also ensures industry efforts can align behind a strategy the industry considers technically and economically feasible, subject to appropriate value-chain collaboration, finance and policy support.